2024 - Is Deflation Cause for Panic? Evidence from the National Banking Era. Journal of Macroeconomics. 82: 1-25.

2023 - The Myth of Wartime Prosperity: Evidence from the Canadian Experience. (with Vincent Geloso.)  Social Science Quarterly. 104(4): 377–394.

2022 - Preferential Attachment and Carl Menger’s Theory of the Endogenous Emergence of a Medium of Exchange. Cosmos and Taxis: Studies in Emergent Order and Organization. 10(5+6): 47–60.

Exceptional Growth without Curse: Reexamining Canada's Wheat Boom, 1896 to 1913. (with Jamie Bologna Pavlik and Vincent Geloso.)

The Potlatch as Memory: Ceremony and Gift-Giving along the Pacific Northwest. (with Till Gross.) 

Rethinking Deflation and Its Effects: A Cross-Country Analysis of Supply-Driven Deflation. (with Bryan Cutsinger.)

Abstract: Deflation is often presumed to depress economic activity, push nominal rates to their effective lower bound, and cause financial disintermediation. We revisit 1880–1900 (one of the few periods where deflation was commonplace), assembling annual data for 12 economies and estimating a sign-restricted Bayesian panel VAR. We identify supply- and demand-driven deflation and trace effects on short-term rates and financial intermediation. Positive supply shocks lower prices and raise output without reducing nominal rates or intermediation, whereas negative demand shocks produce lower nominal rates and disintermediation. FEVDs show sizable supply contributions. Therefore, our findings suggest that policy should “look through” supply-driven deflation.

An Exploration of Indigenous Access to Banking Services Historically in Canada: A Spatial Analysis.  (with Lawrence Schembri.)  

Abstract: This paper builds a novel dataset of the location of charted bank branches in Canada between 1840 and 1935 – between the founding of the Province of Canada via the merger of Upper and Lower Canada (now Ontario and Quebec) and the establishment of the Bank of Canada (which ended private supply of large denomination notes). We then use this dataset to explore Indigenous communities’ access to financial services along two dimensions. First, as the branch network expanded, we test if the location of new branches relative to Indigenous communities was correlated with the community’s size and affluence. Here, we are looking to determine if chartered banks saw Indigenous communities as potential sources of customers or if they were disregarded in the location decision (possibly due to ignorance or bias). Second, we test if an Indigenous community being historically closer to a bank branch is a predictor of use of financial services and of participation in related programs to promote financial inclusion today. The proposed mechanism here is that geographic proximity to banks increases familiarity and awareness of financial institutions and, through this, helps build trust and financial acumen—a predictor of overall access to finance—which can be passed through generations over time.